10 March 2008
Cancellation
of the RAAF’s the Super Hornet program and
acquisition of the F-22A Raptor are just two of the
options likely to be canvassed in the air power review,
which in turn will shape Australia’s next Defence
White Paper.
Defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon
announced 18 February that he had commissioned Neil
Orme, First Assistant
Secretary for Policy Development, to carry out a review “into
the adequacy of current planning for Australia’s
Air Combat Capability to 2045.”
“I have asked the review team to
provide its report by the end of April 2008 in order
that its findings
can be considered by Government and incorporated into
the development of the Defence White Paper,” Fitzgibbon said.
The Air Power Capability Options
Review is expected to be one of a series of so-called
Companion Reviews
commissioned by Fitzgibbon across a range of Defence
areas to underpin the new White Paper. “These
critical studies will be a key input to developing
Defence business and budget priorities out to 2030,” he
said.
However, a concurrent review of Australian defence
acquisition projects overseen by Parliamentary Secretary
for Defence Greg Combet is not expected to have a direct
impact on the Defence White Paper, though it will likely
shape the defence business environment over the next
decade.
The Defence White Paper will be published at the end
of this year, Fitzgibbon announced 22 February, and
the writing team will be headed by the Deputy Secretary
for Strategy, Mike Pezullo.
“The White Paper process will result in comprehensive
policy guidance across the entire Defence portfolio,
delivering on the Labor Government’s election
undertaking to re-examine Australia’s strategic
environment,” said Fitzgibbon. “It will
align defence strategic guidance, force structure and
capability priorities, and resource strategies, by
taking a comprehensive view of the Defence enterprise.”
Pezullo’s writing team will
be backed up by an external Ministerial Advisory
Panel comprising Professor
Ross Babbage of the Kokoda Foundation, and Major General
Peter Abigail (Retd) and Dr Mark Thomson, both of the
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Like
its predecessor, the 2008 Defence White Paper will
also include a comprehensive public consultation process,
Fitzgibbon stated. Further details on the Companion
Reviews were not available at the time of writing,
but one of them is expected to be the Air Power Capability
Options review; another one could be the much-anticipated
national security review which was announced by Prime
Minister Kevn Rudd shortly after he came to office
in November last year.
An unclassified executive summary
of Orme’s
air power report will be released after the government
has considered the classified version. The two-stage
review will first examine whether a genuine “capability
gap” could emerge between the retirement of the
RAAF’s ageing force of F-111s in 2010 and the
arrival of its first operational squadron of F-35A
Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters in 2015. Under the
original plan, the RAAF’s combat force during
this transition would have consisted of its 71 heavily
upgraded “classic” F/A-18A/B Hornet strike
fighters.
It was the potential for a capability
gap to emerge, compounded by the risk of delays to
the JSF program,
that prompted former defence minister Dr Brendan Nelson
in March 2007 to order the Super Hornet Block 2 as
a Bridging Fighter. Fitzgibbon has been a vocal critic
of the lack of detailed analysis justifying Nelson’s
decision.
Orme will also examine the feasibility of operating
the F-111 beyond 2010, and carry out a comparative
analysis of aircraft available to fill any capability
gap that might emerge after its retirement; and he
will also examine the status of the Super Hornet acquisition
program.
Fitzgibbon has confirmed that cancellation
of the Super Hornet purchase is a genuine possibility,
if
the review finds that a bridging fighter is unnecessary
or that a better option is available. Construction
of the first of the RAAF’s Super Hornets has
already begun in the US and Dr Steve Gumley, head of
Australia’s defence acquisition agency, the Defence
Materiel Organisation (DMO), told the Senate’s
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade (FADT) committee
in February that cancellation at that time would likely
cost the government around $400 million. With every
month that passes that figure climbs by a further $100
million, he added.
In defence of the Super Hornet
option, the Chief of the Defence Force (CDF), Air
Chief Marshal Angus Houston,
told the committee, “This is a very good capability,
there is nothing better in the region at the moment,
and this would give us a very sharp edge over the other
capability… in the region at the moment.”
Fitzgibbon also confirmed that
Australia will ask the US government formally if
the Lockheed Martin F-22A
Raptor stealth fighter is available for export to the
RAAF. If it is, then Orme’s review will consider
its cost, and any conditions associated with purchase
of the F-22A, in examining “the case for and
against acquiring the F-22”, as laid out in the
terms of reference of his inquiry.
Fitzgibbon made a formal approach to his US counterpart,
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, during the US-Australia
AUSMIN talks in Canberra in late-February and received
a non-commital response: Gates said he had no objection
in principle, but pointed out that a change in US legislation
would be necessary to allow exports of the F-22A. Given
the importance which Australia places on the issue,
he said he would look into it on his return to Washington
DC.
“Because we have not had the ability to sell
the F-22, to be honest I haven't delved into … what
the complications would be, the questions about whether
a new design would be required for export,” he
told reporters in Canberra.
Australia has never formally requested
export clearance for the F-22A, though early assessments
during the
late-1990s and early-21st century of potential replacements
for the RAAF’s Hornets included unclassified
data on the F-22A. Since the decision was made to replace
both the F-111 and Hornet with a single aircraft type,
Air Chief Marshal Houston (who was Chief of Air Force
when the decision was made to join the Joint Strike
Fighter program), has repeatedly stated that the F-35A
is more appropriate to the RAAF needs than the F-22A
because of its superior strike capabilities.
“The US government will not release the full
F-22 capability to other countries – there’s
no doubt about that,” according to Andrew Davies
of ASPI. “So what would it cost to make [the
F-22A] exportable, and what capabilities [would be
withheld from Australia] as a result?”
The possible purchase of the F-22A
will be examined as part of the second stage of the
review which will
also consider trends in Asia-Pacific air power until
2045, the relative capabilities of current and projected
fourth and fifth generation combat aircraft such as
the F-35A, and Australian defence and aerospace industry
issues “relevant to the development of Australia’s
future air combat capability.”
Orme’s review team will be guided by a steering
committee which includes the Chief of Air Force, Air
Marshal Geoff Shepherd, Dr Gumley, the Chief Defence
Scientist Dr Roger Lough, and representatives from
the Departments of Prime Minister & Cabinet, Treasury
and Finance & Deregulation.
Second pass Approval for the F-35A
purchase was due in October this year, but on the
current production
schedule Australia doesn’t really need to place
a firm order until around 2010, says ASPI’s Andrew
Davies.
The likelihood that the cabinet
will approve an F-35A order this year seems to be
receding: it’s more
likely a decision will be announced after the Defence
White Paper is published, as this document will set
out the strategic justification for major equipment
and force structure decisions over the next few years.
© Rumour Control 2008 ENDS
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